All the serious people in Washington know we have a debt problem. “Rapidly Growing Debt Threatens America’s Economic Future” blared a typical press release from Senate Budget Committee chairman Mike Enzi. “It is clear from [Congressional Budget Office] analysis that rapidly growing public sector debt threatens America’s economic future,” he said.

There’s just one problem. The numbers relied upon by Enzi and far too many others inside the Beltway, including the Congressional Budget Office itself, are completely bogus. The methodology used by the CBO to create these projections exaggerates the federal government’s long-term debt projection by as much as 440 percent, creating a phony fiscal crisis where none exists.

In reality, data provided to The Nation by Stephen Goss, chief actuary of the Social Security Administration, shows that starting in 2032 the federal government’s debt held by the public is on track to rapidly decline as a share of GDP, bottoming out at 40 percent. This is in stark contrast to the CBO’s sharply rising debt-to-GDP ratio, which peaks at 176 percent in 2090.

How can there be such a large discrepancy in the numbers? The answer is fairly simple. The CBO assumes that Social Security and Medicare Part A will draw on the general fund of the US Treasury to cover benefit shortfalls following the depletion of their trust funds, which at the current rate will occur in 2034.

Continue reading the story here.